Saturday 13th May 2023 marks the final of the Eurovision song contest and – for the first time in 25 years – it will be held in the UK, which will host the competition on behalf of last year’s winner Ukraine.
A 160 million-strong global audience is expected to tune into the ceremony live in Liverpool, which will welcome artists and delegates from 37 different countries, not to mention thousands of travelling fans.
So, as anticipation builds ahead of the Grand Final, we ask: who is the favourite to win Eurovision 2023? We have crunched the numbers to find out, using search and streaming data to predict who will win the public vote.
As is tradition, age-old national rivalries and friendships are likely to have a bearing on the final points awarded – not to mention that many people have predicted another significant win for Ukraine.
However, our data offers an insight into song popularity and, which artists and countries are creating the biggest stir in the lead-up to the Grand Final.
We have also looked at which countries can lay claim to being the most obsessed with Eurovision, alongside looking back at previous contests to explore which Eurovision-winning artists are the most popular of all time.
So, let’s get into it.
Our data predicts Loreen as Eurovision 2023 winner
We analysed the full list of 2023 artists to explore which have been the most searched and streamed in the run-up to the Grand Final.
This provides an insight of which artists are creating the most public interest so far. Of course, audience votes only make up 50% of each artist’s total score, but this does point to the potential final ranking. For clarity, we have only included the 37 countries that are participating in the Grand Final.
The most searched and streamed 2023 Eurovision finalists
Currently, German metal band Lord of the Lost are the most searched Eurovision entrant in the most participating countries. One of these countries was – predictably – Germany. However, because Eurovision rules stipulate you cannot vote for your own country, we have discounted the band’s home nation from the overall score. Taking this into account, Lord of the Lost currently have eight out of 37 (or 22%) of the potential top vote.
They are followed by Swedish singer Loreen. Discounting Sweden, Loreen is the most searched artist in seven out of 37 participating countries – so has 19% of the potential top vote.
In third is Italian singer-songwriter Marco Mengoni. Again, discounting his home country, he has six out of 37 countries, or 16% of the potential top vote.
The second most searched and streamed 2023 Eurovision finalists
When looking at the second most searched entrants so far, the data shows a similar picture.
Loreen is the second-most searched entrant in 13 (35%) of countries, while Lord of the Lost takes 9 (24%) and Marco Mengoni takes 6 (16%) of the potential second-highest vote.
Taking these two sets of data as a weighted average, where we assign Eurovision’s much-coveted 12 points to a country’s favourite artist and 10 points to its second favourite, Loreen has the highest chance of winning the competition, with a potential 214 points compared to Lord of the Lost with 186.
Of course, these are simply predictions based on the current interest in each artist and assumes that this interest will translate into public votes. Nobody knows what will happen on the night itself and many expect that Ukraine will ultimately triumph.
Ultimately, Eurovision 2023 provides a global platform on which to connect with our neighbouring countries and show off what Liverpool has to offer the world. We look forward to seeing what the Grand Final holds.
The most Eurovision obsessed countries
With a huge 38% of the Finnish population tuning into the Eurovision final in 2022, the country can officially lay claim to being the most Eurovision-obsessed euro nation.
Finland is one of the contest’s longest-standing entrants, having begun its Eurovision journey back in 1961 and participating 55 times since. However, despite the competition being so widely watched in Finland, only once has the country triumphed with a winner in 2006.
In second position are Denmark and Sweden, in which 23% of the population tuned into Eurovision in 2022. Much like their Scandinavian neighbour, both countries were early entrants to the competition, with Denmark having entered its first in 1957 and Sweden 1958. Denmark has celebrated a win at the contest three times – first in 1963, then in 2000 and 2013. Sweden has matched this, winning in 1964, 1970 and 1976.
With around 13% of the UK population watching the Eurovision final in 2022, we made seventh on the list. However, given the enormous hype already growing around the contest this year, this may be set to change.
The most popular Eurovision winners by country
Eurovision has a rich history – the contest started way back in 1956 – and counts dozens of successful winners over the years who have gone on to great things.
We explored the most popular Eurovision-winning artists ever and broke these down by European country.
The overwhelming dominance of ABBA was, of course, to be expected. A huge 37/44 (84%) European countries we analysed search for the multi-award-winning Swedish pop sensation more often than any other Eurovision winner.
What is interesting, however, are the countries where ABBA was NOT the most popular.
France, for example, searches for French-Canadian Céline Dion 4.3 times more often than ABBA every month. Italian glam rock band Måneskin were found to be most popular in Russia and Belarus, with 2007 winner, Serbian Marija Šerifović taking the top spot for monthly searches in Bosnia & Herzegovina and Montenegro.
In addition, our analysis showed that Irish singer and double Eurovision winner Johnny Logan is most popular in Belgium. Meanwhile Estonian Tanel Padar, 2001 winner, is the most searched in - unsurprisingly - Estonia.
The second most popular Eurovision winners by country
We also looked at the second most searched Eurovision-winning artist in each nation. This highlighted a far more mixed picture.
Overall, Måneskin take the crown for the second most searched artist in 15 European countries altogether. The band delivers a clean sweep across Scandinavia, with Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland all searching for the rockers more frequently than any other Eurovision winning artists aside from ABBA.
France again bucks the trend, with ABBA missing out on the first and second most-searched spot here. Instead, another French-speaking artist – France Gall – was found to be more popular than ABBA.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the second most searched artists in many countries are home-grown or share cultural similarities. For example, Italian Gigliola Cinquetti, who took home the contest in 1966, is second most searched in Italy. Likewise, Dutch 1969 winner Lenny Kuhr was the second most searched in the Netherlands, despite being relatively unknown on a global stage.
Research methodology
Using Ahrefs, we took the full list of artists from each participating country and analysed search data (via Google) and streaming volume (via YouTube) across all countries. We also analysed the full list of all previous Eurovision winners in each country in the same way.
We took Statista data and divided each country’s population by the number of viewers in 2022. All data is correct as of 26th April 2023.
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